Everyone knows a SSB4 trailer is coming at E3 2013. So let's put some bets on who you think will show up. Note that this is solely based on the initial reveal and has nothing to do with who will eventually appear in the final game.
Rules
- Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
- Players get 100 Smash Coins.
- Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
- If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
- Whoever wins the most may or may not get some sort of prize. A custom Smash Bros.-related desktop or something seems reasonable, maybe I'll figure something out. Don't expect much, this is just for fun.
Odds
If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.
Veterans
You may place bets based on which characters will appear.
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| 1.01 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 1.01 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 20.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.01 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 15.0 | 1.01 | 12.5 | 50.0 | 25.0 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 15.0 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 15.0 | 40.0 | 15.0 | 50.0 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 45.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
1 Sensibly-proportioned, non-adult Link.
2 Cell-shaded, big-head Link.
3 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 10.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
4 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 7.0 odds for predicting otherwise.
5 5.0 odds for predicting "new forme appearance".
6 Given odds assume no change. 11.0 odds for predicting the Trainer with at least 1 different Pokémon. 20.0 odds for predicting a Pokémon without the Trainer. 17.0 odds for a different Trainer with the same Pokémon.
Newcomers
You may place bets of two types:
- "New character from X series". Odds are as given.
- "Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.
| Mario series | 1.1 |
| Yoshi subseries | 2.5 |
| WarioWare subseries | 4.0 |
| DK series | 1.5 |
| Zelda series | 1.4 |
| Metroid series | 5.0 |
| Kirby series | 2.5 |
| Star Fox series | 2.7 |
| Pokémon series | 3.0 |
| F-Zero series | 25.0 |
| EarthBound series | 25.0 |
| Fire Emblem series | 6.0 |
| Kid Icarus series | 4.0 |
| Pikmin series1 | 15.0 |
| Sonic series | 25.0 |
| Metal Gear series | 25.0 |
| New series, first-party | 1.5 |
| New series, third-party (Namco) | 1.8 |
| New series, third-party (other) | 4.0 |
1 5.0 odds if new character looks to be an Olimar clone/replacement from Pikmin 3.
Trailer details
Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.
| Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer" | 1.7 |
| Opens with the title logo | 1.6 |
| Opens with a couple of characters readying up | 1.3 |
| First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu) | 1.2 |
| Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes as character-reveal mechanic | 3.7 |
| At least one Final Smash shown1 | 1.4 |
| Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%2 | 2.3 |
| Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%2 | 1.6 |
| Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move | 2.1 |
| What looks to be an altered mechanic | 2.0 |
| What looks to be a new mechanic | 2.0 |
| Something that appears to be adventure-mode-related | 4.5 |
| Contains large explosion | 1.5 |
| Has false ending | 6.0 |
| Uses "Challenger Approaching"-esque silhouettes to tease future announcements | 7.5 |
1 Or at least most people agree it looks like one (see Wario Waft).
2 As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.
Other
Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.
| Shows console/handheld connectivity1 | 8.9 |
| One of the Flagship Four does not appear | 50.0 |
| A veteran has a new Final Smash2 | 5.6 |
| Link is Hero of Skies | 1.4 |
| Gen V Pokémon (playable or Pokéball) | 2.0 |
| Gen VI Pokémon (playable or Pokéball) | 25.0 |
1 If it's only described outside the trailer (such as Reggie/Iwata saying "will do such and such" afterwards), it doesn't count.
2 Or at least most people agree it looks like one.
Entries
You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything).
You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.
| Bets | User | Max Potential | Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
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Miles (talk) 17:55, 5 June 2013 (EDT) | 408.0 | 1,228.5 |
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James Heart 21:59, 5 June 2013 (EDT)
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1337.1 | 74.235 |
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Ceci n’est pas un Smiddle. 04:31, 6 June 2013 (EDT) | 329.5 | 162.0 |
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Toast  ltimatum 08:46, 6 June 2013 (EDT)
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243.5 | 14.625 |
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Omega Tyrant  18:54, 7 June 2013 (EDT)
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451 | 194.4 |
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Mr. Anon talk 21:22, 7 June 2013 (EDT)
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1217 | 1,804,687,500,000.0 |
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DarkFox01 Great Fox is ready to go. 14:13, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
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1491.5 | 472.5 |
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Starman125 (talk) 12:04, 8 June 2013 (EDT) | 176.65 | 4.545 |
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DoctorPain99 14:00, 8 June 2013 (EDT) | 672.5 | 1,417.5 |
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83.82.134.111 14:33, 8 June 2013 (EDT) | 1880 | 37,500.0 |
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LightningBlue 16:10, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
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567.5 | 67.5 |
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ChuckNorris 17:33, 10 June 2013 (EDT)
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364.5 | 102.795 |
Comments
Quick question Toomai: If a Young Link returns with a Final Smash different from Toon Link's Triforce Slash, how much do I get? Mr. Anon talk 12:01, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
- That's a difficult question, since in a sense it depends on whether the final game has one or both secondary Links. If we see both secondary Links in the trailer then I'll count it as a new Final Smash, not a changed one; if only one appears I'll count it as changed as we'll have no other information to go on. Toomai Glittershine
The Quiet 13:41, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
Results
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| 1.01 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.01 | 1.3 | 1.01 | 1.3 | 1.01 | 3.5 |
| Villager (New series, first-party) | 1.5 |
| Mega Man (New series, third-party (Namco)) | 1.8 |
| At least one Final Smash shown | 1.4 |
| Gameplay/video ratio >= 67% | 2.3 |
| Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move | 2.1 |
| What looks to be an altered mechanic | 2.0 |
| Has false ending | 6.0 |
Well looks like pretty much none of us guessed right.
| Bets | User | Results | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | character, new series, third-party (other) | Miles (talk) |  |
133 |
| 10 | character, new series, first-party | 
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| 30 | Pit |
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| 10 | Samus |
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| 10 | Captain Falcon |
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| 30 | something that appears to be adventure-mode-related |
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| 50 | newcomer, F-Zero series | James Heart |
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87.1 |
| 30 | looks like a veteran has a new/altered move |
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| 10 | at least one final smash shown |
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| 10 | Mario |
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| 20 | Wario | Ceci n’est pas un Smiddle. | |
30 |
| 25 | new mechanic |
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| 20 | "Challenger Approaching" for future announcements |
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| 20 | new series, first-party |
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| 15 | adventure mode-related |
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| 20 | Silhouettes to tease future announcements | Toast ltimatum |
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71 |
| 15 | Explosion |
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| 20 | Donkey Kong |
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| 45 | into a savings account |
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| 0 | Quietly betting against the appearance of Link so his new design can be shown off in a Zelda U trailer later. |
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| 40 | Fire Emblem newcomer | Omega Tyrant |
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| 20 | large explosion. |
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| 25 | third-party newcomer that isn't Namco. |
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| 15 | Krystal from Star Fox. |
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| 20 | a Gen 5 Pokemon appearing | Mr. Anon talk |
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| 10 | a Gen 6 Pokemon appearing |
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| 20 | Lucas appearing |
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| 20 | a Veteran changing final smashes |
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| 5 | new character (third party other) |
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| 4 | Sonic new character |
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| 4 | Metal Gear new character |
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| 4 | F-Zero new character |
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| 4 | Earthbound/Mother new character |
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| 4 | Mewtwo |
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| 5 | new Pikmin character |
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| 55 | a new F-Zero character | DarkFox01 |
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31.5 |
| 20 | a Generation V Pokémon appearing |
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| 15 | a veteran with a new or altered move |
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| 10 | an Adventure-related gameplay mode |
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| 40 | a new Kirby character | Starman125 (talk) | |
15.15 |
| 20 | the Flagship Four appearing first in the trailer |
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| 25 | explosion |
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| 15 | Mario |
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| 20 | Marth | DoctorPain99 | |
87.5 |
| 25 | New Character, Fire Emblem Series |
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| 30 | something that appears to be adventure mode related |
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| 25 | Pit |
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| 20 | Mr Game and Watch | 83.82.134.111 | |
0 |
| 20 | Mewtwo (original) |
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| 40 | new mechanic |
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| 20 | Wolf |
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| 25 | First characters shown are Flagship Four | LightningBlue |
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| 25 | MK |
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| 20 | new kirby character |
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| 30 | Marth |
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| 20 | a new Mario character appearing | ChuckNorris |
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35 |
| 20 | a new Pokémon appearing |
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| 10 | a new kirby character |
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| 25 | a final smash being shown |
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| 25 | some sort of connectivity between 3DS and Wii U being shown |
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