User:Toomai/The SSB5 Reveal Prediction Game
Last time, only one user made money (and one broke even) on the SSB4 trailer. Time for round two. *ding ding*
Rules[edit]
- Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
- Players get 100 Smash Coins.
- Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed during the first Smash Bros. trailer during E3 2018. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
- If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
- There is no prize for winning; just the satisfaction of outguessing everyone else.
- Second disclaimer: If a character-specific reveal comes first within a few days, I may choose to merge its results with the general trailer that comes later. If it comes too long before the E3 window, it won't count, and I will update these odds appropriately.
Odds[edit]
If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.
Reminder: this is solely based on the initial reveal, and has nothing to do with what will eventually appear in the final game.
Veterans[edit]
You may place bets based on which veteran characters will appear.
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1 The Link who has the classic "Link" moveset, whatever his design or name happen to be.
2 Counts all Mii subtypes as one.
3 The "stands in the background while his switchable Pokémon fight" Trainer. Which exact Pokémon he has fall under their own bets.
4 "Sensibly-proportioned non-adult Link" as opposed to "cell-shaded big-head Link". Items used may also be a factor.
Newcomers[edit]
You may place bets of two types:
- "New character from X series". Odds are as given.
- "Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.
Odds are halved if a newcomer is a clone or semi-clone (must be explicitly stated, or trivially observable). Odds are quartered if a character is shown to be an alternate costume.
I may choose different odds for specific newcomers if you spell them out, at my discretion.
I left some veteran series off this list on purpose, because I think there are no further viable characters from them. Complain if you want. Perhaps I'm misinformed.
| Mario series | 1.2 |
| Yoshi subseries | 4.0 |
| WarioWare subseries | 7.0 |
| Donkey Kong series | 1.3 |
| Zelda series | 1.4 |
| Metroid series | 5.0 |
| Kirby series | 4.0 |
| Star Fox series | 2.0 |
| Pokémon series | 2.0 |
| F-Zero series | 25.0 |
| EarthBound series | 25.0 |
| Fire Emblem series | 3.0 |
| Kid Icarus series | 5.0 |
| Pikmin series | 20.0 |
| Xenoblade series | 15.0 |
| Sonic series | 20.0 |
| Metal Gear series | 100.0 |
| Mega Man series | 50.0 |
| Bayonetta series | 75.0 |
| New series, first-party | 1.5 |
| New series, third-party (with existing major1 representation) | 2.5 |
| New series, third-party (with existing minor1 representation) | 10.0 |
| New series, third-party (other) | 15.0 |
1 "Major" means the third party has contributed a playable character or stage in previous instalments. "Minor" means something less than that, such as an item, music, or trophy. Whether they are of the same series does not matter.
Trailer details[edit]
Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.
| Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer" | 1.2 |
| Looks like some other game to start with | 1.5 |
| Opens with the title logo | 2.5 |
| First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu) | 2.0 |
| At least one Final Smash shown1 | 1.4 |
| Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%2 | 1.5 |
| Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%2 | 2.5 |
| Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move | 2.0 |
| What looks to be an altered mechanic | 2.0 |
| What looks to be a new mechanic | 2.0 |
| Contains large explosion | 1.5 |
| Has false ending | 4.0 |
1 Or at least most people agree it looks like one.
2 As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.
Other[edit]
Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.
| Spring Man as something other than a playable character | 12.5 |
Entries[edit]
You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything), as long as you don't flood the page with edits (it is a userpage after all). If you do change your bet too many times, I'll wait until after the reveal and change your bet to whatever version pays the least.
You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.
| Bets | User | Max Potential | Total Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
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Alex Parpotta the flying lobster! 15:22, 17 March 2018 (EDT) | 1,600 | 1,125.0 |
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Serpent  King 16:05, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
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865 | 22,500.0 |
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Iron Reggie, Master of Memes 16:11, 17 March 2018 (EDT) | 101 | 1.03 |
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Toast  ltimatum 17:09, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
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1050 | 18,000.0 |
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Menshay (talk) 19:14, 17 March 2018 (EDT) | 1,120.1 | 363.6 |
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Aidan, the Rurouni 20:04, 17 March 2018 (EDT) | 875.65 | 6,389.48 |
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infernape612 12:07, 2 June 2018 (EDT) | 1,475 | 22,500.0 |
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Dragonfirebreath25 (talk) 12:59, 2 June 2018 (EDT) | 840.35 | 185.45 |
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—Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.52.19.237 (talk • contribs) 20:25, 2 June 2018 (EDT) | 683.36 | 243,160.3 |
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Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan Leave a message if needed 09:30, 4 June 2018 (EDT) | 1,086 | 29,767.5 |
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User:CaptainDabsalot | 1,031.6 | 3,213.32 |
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RickTommy 22:30, 9 June 2018 (EDT) | 541 | 1,134.0 |
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ChuckNorris 16:48, 11 June 2018 (EDT)
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5,500 | 1,000.0 |
Results[edit]
Veterans: Everyone (as the gimmick goes) Newcomers:
| Daisy (Mario series) | 1.2 |
| Ridley (Metroid series) | 5.0 |
| Inkling (new series first-party) | 1.5 |
| Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer" | 1.2 |
| Opens with the title logo | 2.5 |
| At least one Final Smash shown1 | 1.4 |
| Gameplay/video ratio >= 67% | 1.5 |
| Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move | 2.0 |
| What looks to be an altered mechanic | 2.0 |
| What looks to be a new mechanic | 2.0 |
| Has false ending | 4.0 |
| Bets | User | Results | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Captain Falcon | Alex Parpotta the flying lobster! |  |
1,600.0 |
| 25 | Luigi |
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| 50 | Jigglypuff |
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| 20 | Ganondorf | Serpent King |
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850.0 |
| 10 | Mewtwo |
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| 10 | Lucario |
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| 5 | New series, first-party (ARMS: Spring Man) | 
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| 50 | Mario | Iron Reggie, Master of Memes | |
101.0 |
| 25 | Link |
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| 25 | Pikachu |
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| 50 | Has false ending | Toast ltimatum |
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650.0 |
| 20 | Wario |
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| 20 | New series, third-party (existing minor rep.) (Rayman: Rayman) |
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| 10 | Sonic |
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| 10 | Bowser | Menshay (talk) | |
130.1 |
| 30 | Marth |
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| 30 | New series, first-party (The Mysterious Murasame Castle: Takamaru) |
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| 30 | New series, third-party (other) (Minecraft: Steve) |
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| 5 | Fox | Aidan, the Rurouni | |
175.65 |
| 5 | Kirby |
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| 5 | Pikachu |
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| 5 | Yoshi |
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| 5 | Pit |
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| 10 | Sonic |
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| 15 | Xenoblade series (Rex) |
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| 20 | Spring Man as something other than a playable character |
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| 25 | Jigglypuff | infernape612 | |
1,475.0 |
| 25 | Captain Falcon |
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| 25 | Ness |
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| 25 | Luigi |
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| 15 | Mario | Dragonfirebreath25 (talk) | |
840.35 |
| 10 | Pikachu |
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| 10 | Donkey Kong |
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| 20 | Mii Fighter |
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| 45 | Luigi |
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| 3 | Mario | 24.52.19.237 (talk • contribs) | |
555.36 |
| 3 | Yoshi |
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| 3 | Donkey Kong |
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| 3 | Link |
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| 3 | Samus |
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| 3 | Kirby |
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| 3 | Fox |
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| 3 | Pikachu |
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| 9 | Luigi |
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| 9 | Jigglypuff |
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| 9 | Captain Falcon |
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| 9 | Ness |
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| 20 | Pokemon series (Meowth R) |
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| 20 | Mario series (Waluigi) |
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| 20 | Luigi | Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan Leave a message if needed | |
636.0 |
| 15 | Sonic |
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| 30 | Villager |
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| 20 | Fox |
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| 15 | Xenoblade series (Rex) |
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| 50 | Pikachu | User:CaptainDabsalot User Talk: CaptainDabsalot | |
1031.6 |
| 20 | Pit |
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| 15 | Dark Pit |
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| 10 | Yoshi |
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| 5 | Pichu |
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| 20 | Fox | RickTommy | |
481.0 |
| 20 | Captain Falcon |
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| 20 | Olimar |
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| 20 | Little Mac |
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| 20 | New series, first-party (Pilotwings) (Lark) |
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| 50 | Metroid series (Ridley) | ChuckNorris |
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5,500.0 |
| 50 | Snake |
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