User:Toomai/The SSB5 Reveal Prediction Game

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Last time, only one user made money (and one broke even) on the SSB4 trailer. Time for round two. *ding ding*

Rules[edit]

  • Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
  • Players get 100 Smash Coins.
  • Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed during the first Smash Bros. trailer during E3 2018. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
  • If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
  • There is no prize for winning; just the satisfaction of outguessing everyone else.
  • Second disclaimer: If a character-specific reveal comes first within a few days, I may choose to merge its results with the general trailer that comes later. If it comes too long before the E3 window, it won't count, and I will update these odds appropriately.

Odds[edit]

If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.

Reminder: this is solely based on the initial reveal, and has nothing to do with what will eventually appear in the final game.

Veterans[edit]

You may place bets based on which veteran characters will appear.

Safe
Character Odds
Bowser 1.01
Donkey Kong 1.01
Fox 1.05
Inkling 1.01
Kirby 1.01
Link1 1.01
Mario 1.01
Peach 1.1
Pikachu 1.01
Pit 1.05
Samus 1.01
Yoshi 1.01
Inside
Character Odds
Captain Falcon 5.0
Charizard 8.0
Diddy Kong 4.0
Falco 8.0
Ike 7.0
King Dedede 5.0
Luigi 9.0
Marth 4.0
Meta Knight 5.0
Olimar 6.0
Palutena 5.0
Rosalina 7.0
Sheik 3.0
Toon Link 8.0
Villager 7.0
Zelda 3.0
Zero Suit Samus 5.0
Outside
Character Odds
Bayonetta 15.0
Bowser Jr. 20.0
Ganondorf 25.0
Greninja 12.0
Ice Climbers 25.0
Jigglypuff 25.0
Little Mac 12.0
Lucario 15.0
Lucas 25.0
Mewtwo 20.0
Mii Fighter2 20.0
Ness 20.0
Robin 15.0
Shulk 12.0
Sonic 15.0
Wario 15.0
Wii Fit Trainer 20.0
Crazy
Character Odds
Cloud 100.0
Corrin 40.0
Dark Pit 30.0
Dr. Mario 50.0
Duck Hunt 50.0
Ivysaur 55.0
Lucina 75.0
Mega Man 35.0
Mr. Game & Watch 50.0
Pac-Man 30.0
Pichu 100.0
Pokémon Trainer3 100.0
R.O.B. 50.0
Roy 60.0
Ryu 75.0
Snake 100.0
Squirtle 55.0
Wolf 40.0
Young Link4 100.0

1 The Link who has the classic "Link" moveset, whatever his design or name happen to be.
2 Counts all Mii subtypes as one.
3 The "stands in the background while his switchable Pokémon fight" Trainer. Which exact Pokémon he has fall under their own bets.
4 "Sensibly-proportioned non-adult Link" as opposed to "cell-shaded big-head Link". Items used may also be a factor.

Newcomers[edit]

You may place bets of two types:

  1. "New character from X series". Odds are as given.
  2. "Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.

Odds are halved if a newcomer is a clone or semi-clone (must be explicitly stated, or trivially observable). Odds are quartered if a character is shown to be an alternate costume.

I may choose different odds for specific newcomers if you spell them out, at my discretion.

I left some veteran series off this list on purpose, because I think there are no further viable characters from them. Complain if you want. Perhaps I'm misinformed.

Mario series 1.2
Yoshi subseries 4.0
WarioWare subseries 7.0
Donkey Kong series 1.3
Zelda series 1.4
Metroid series 5.0
Kirby series 4.0
Star Fox series 2.0
Pokémon series 2.0
F-Zero series 25.0
EarthBound series 25.0
Fire Emblem series 3.0
Kid Icarus series 5.0
Pikmin series 20.0
Xenoblade series 15.0
Sonic series 20.0
Metal Gear series 100.0
Mega Man series 50.0
Bayonetta series 75.0
New series, first-party 1.5
New series, third-party (with existing major1 representation) 2.5
New series, third-party (with existing minor1 representation) 10.0
New series, third-party (other) 15.0

1 "Major" means the third party has contributed a playable character or stage in previous instalments. "Minor" means something less than that, such as an item, music, or trophy. Whether they are of the same series does not matter.

Trailer details[edit]

Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.

Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer" 1.2
Looks like some other game to start with 1.5
Opens with the title logo 2.5
First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu) 2.0
At least one Final Smash shown1 1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%2 1.5
Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%2 2.5
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move 2.0
What looks to be an altered mechanic 2.0
What looks to be a new mechanic 2.0
Contains large explosion 1.5
Has false ending 4.0

1 Or at least most people agree it looks like one.
2 As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.

Other[edit]

Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.

Spring Man as something other than a playable character 12.5

Entries[edit]

You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything), as long as you don't flood the page with edits (it is a userpage after all). If you do change your bet too many times, I'll wait until after the reveal and change your bet to whatever version pays the least.

You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.

Bets User Max Potential Total Odds
  • 25 on Captain Falcon
  • 25 on Luigi
  • 50 on Jigglypuff
Alex Parpotta the flying lobster! 15:22, 17 March 2018 (EDT) 1,600 1,125.0
  • 20 on Ganondorf
  • 10 on Mewtwo
  • 10 on Lucario
  • 5 on Spring Man from ARMS
Serpent SKSig.png King 16:05, 17 March 2018 (EDT) 865 22,500.0
  • 50 on Mario
  • 25 on Link
  • 25 on Pikachu
Iron Reggie, Master of Memes 16:11, 17 March 2018 (EDT) 101 1.03
  • 50 on False Ending
  • 20 on Wario
  • 20 on New Series Third-Party (Rayman)
  • 10 on Sonic
Toast Wii U Logo Transparent.pngltimatumTransparent Swadloon.png 17:09, 17 March 2018 (EDT) 1050 18,000.0
  • 10 on Bowser
  • 30 on Marth
  • 30 on Takamaru (new series first-party)
  • 30 on Steve? (Minecraft, new series third-party)
Menshay (talk) 19:14, 17 March 2018 (EDT) 1,120.1 363.6
  • 5 on each of the remaining Original 8 (Fox, Kirby, Pikachu, Yoshi)
  • 5 on Pit
  • 10 on Sonic
  • 15 on Rex from Xenoblade Chronicles 2
  • 20 on Spring Man being deconfirmed
Aidan, the Rurouni 20:04, 17 March 2018 (EDT) 875.65 6,389.48
  • 25 on Jigglypuff
  • 25 on Captain Falcon
  • 25 on Ness
  • 25 on Luigi
infernape612 12:07, 2 June 2018 (EDT) 1,475 22,500.0
  • 15 on Mario
  • 10 on Pikachu
  • 10 on Donkey Kong
  • 20 on Mii Fighter
  • 45 on Luigi
Dragonfirebreath25 (talk) 12:59, 2 June 2018 (EDT) 840.35 185.45
  • 3 each on the Original 8
  • 9 each on Luigi, Ness, Captain Falcon, and Jigglypuff
  • 20 on Meowth (Team Rocket) from Pokémon
  • 20 on Waluigi from Super Mario
—Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.52.19.237 (talkcontribs) 20:25, 2 June 2018 (EDT) 683.36 243,160.3
  • 20 on Luigi
  • 15 on Sonic
  • 30 on Villager
  • 20 on Fox
  • 15 on Rex from Xenoblade Chronicles 2
Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan Leave a message if needed 09:30, 4 June 2018 (EDT) 1,086 29,767.5
  • 50 for Pikachu
  • 20 for Pit
  • 15 for Dark Pit
  • 10 for Yoshi
  • 5 for Pichu
User:CaptainDabsalot

User Talk: CaptainDabsalot

1,031.6 3,213.32
  • 20 on Fox
  • 20 on Captain Falcon
  • 20 on Olimar
  • 20 on Little Mac
  • 20 on Lark from Pilotwings 64
RickTommy 22:30, 9 June 2018 (EDT) 541 1,134.0
  • 50 on Ridley
  • 50 on Snake
ChuckNorris24.png  16:48, 11 June 2018 (EDT) 5,500 1,000.0

Results[edit]

Veterans: Everyone (as the gimmick goes) Newcomers:

Daisy (Mario series) 1.2
Ridley (Metroid series) 5.0
Inkling (new series first-party) 1.5
Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer" 1.2
Opens with the title logo 2.5
At least one Final Smash shown1 1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67% 1.5
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move 2.0
What looks to be an altered mechanic 2.0
What looks to be a new mechanic 2.0
Has false ending 4.0
Bets User Results Total
25 Captain Falcon Alex Parpotta the flying lobster! Yes 1,600.0
25 Luigi Yes
50 Jigglypuff Yes
20 Ganondorf Serpent SKSig.png King Yes 850.0
10 Mewtwo Yes
10 Lucario Yes
5 New series, first-party (ARMS: Spring Man) No
50 Mario Iron Reggie, Master of Memes Yes 101.0
25 Link Yes
25 Pikachu Yes
50 Has false ending Toast Wii U Logo Transparent.pngltimatumTransparent Swadloon.png Yes 650.0
20 Wario Yes
20 New series, third-party (existing minor rep.) (Rayman: Rayman) No
10 Sonic Yes
10 Bowser Menshay (talk) Yes 130.1
30 Marth Yes
30 New series, first-party (The Mysterious Murasame Castle: Takamaru) No
30 New series, third-party (other) (Minecraft: Steve) No
5 Fox Aidan, the Rurouni Yes 175.65
5 Kirby Yes
5 Pikachu Yes
5 Yoshi Yes
5 Pit Yes
10 Sonic Yes
15 Xenoblade series (Rex) No
20 Spring Man as something other than a playable character No
25 Jigglypuff infernape612 Yes 1,475.0
25 Captain Falcon Yes
25 Ness Yes
25 Luigi Yes
15 Mario Dragonfirebreath25 (talk) Yes 840.35
10 Pikachu Yes
10 Donkey Kong Yes
20 Mii Fighter Yes
45 Luigi Yes
3 Mario 24.52.19.237 (talkcontribs) Yes 555.36
3 Yoshi Yes
3 Donkey Kong Yes
3 Link Yes
3 Samus Yes
3 Kirby Yes
3 Fox Yes
3 Pikachu Yes
9 Luigi Yes
9 Jigglypuff Yes
9 Captain Falcon Yes
9 Ness Yes
20 Pokemon series (Meowth R) No
20 Mario series (Waluigi) No
20 Luigi Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan Leave a message if needed Yes 636.0
15 Sonic Yes
30 Villager Yes
20 Fox Yes
15 Xenoblade series (Rex) No
50 Pikachu User:CaptainDabsalot User Talk: CaptainDabsalot Yes 1031.6
20 Pit Yes
15 Dark Pit Yes
10 Yoshi Yes
5 Pichu Yes
20 Fox RickTommy Yes 481.0
20 Captain Falcon Yes
20 Olimar Yes
20 Little Mac Yes
20 New series, first-party (Pilotwings) (Lark) No
50 Metroid series (Ridley) ChuckNorris24.png Yes 5,500.0
50 Snake Yes