Editing User:Toomai/The SSB5 Reveal Prediction Game

[[User:Toomai/The SSB4 Reveal Prediction Game|Last time]], only one user made money (and one broke even) on the SSB4 trailer. Time for round two. *ding ding*

==Rules==
*'''Disclaimer:''' This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
*Players get 100 Smash Coins.
*Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed '''during the first Smash Bros. trailer during E3 2018'''. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
*If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
*There is no prize for winning; just the satisfaction of outguessing everyone else.
*'''Second disclaimer:''' If a character-specific reveal comes first within a few days, I may choose to merge its results with the general trailer that comes later. If it comes too long before the E3 window, it won't count, and I will update these odds appropriately.

==Odds==
If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.

Reminder: this is solely based on the initial reveal, and has nothing to do with what will eventually appear in the final game.

===Veterans===
You may place bets based on which veteran characters will appear.
{|
|width="25%" style="vertical-align:top"|
{|class="wikitable"
!colspan="2"|Safe
|-
!width="150px"|Character!!width="50px"|Odds
|-
|Bowser||1.01
|-
|Donkey Kong||1.01
|-
|Fox||1.05
|-
|Inkling||1.01
|-
|Kirby||1.01
|-
|Link<sup>1</sup>||1.01
|-
|Mario||1.01
|-
|Peach||1.1
|-
|Pikachu||1.01
|-
|Pit||1.05
|-
|Samus||1.01
|-
|Yoshi||1.01
|}
|width="25%" style="vertical-align:top"|
{|class="wikitable"
!colspan="2"|Inside
|-
!width="150px"|Character!!width="50px"|Odds
|-
|Captain Falcon||5.0
|-
|Charizard||8.0
|-
|Diddy Kong||4.0
|-
|Falco||8.0
|-
|Ike||7.0
|-
|King Dedede||5.0
|-
|Luigi||9.0
|-
|Marth||4.0
|-
|Meta Knight||5.0
|-
|Olimar||6.0
|-
|Palutena||5.0
|-
|Rosalina||7.0
|-
|Sheik||3.0
|-
|Toon Link||8.0
|-
|Villager||7.0
|-
|Zelda||3.0
|-
|Zero Suit Samus||5.0
|}
|width="25%" style="vertical-align:top"|
{|class="wikitable"
!colspan="2"|Outside
|-
!width="150px"|Character!!width="50px"|Odds
|-
|Bayonetta||15.0
|-
|Bowser Jr.||20.0
|-
|Ganondorf||25.0
|-
|Greninja||12.0
|-
|Ice Climbers||25.0
|-
|Jigglypuff||25.0
|-
|Little Mac||12.0
|-
|Lucario||15.0
|-
|Lucas||25.0
|-
|Mewtwo||20.0
|-
|Mii Fighter<sup>2</sup>||20.0
|-
|Ness||20.0
|-
|Robin||15.0
|-
|Shulk||12.0
|-
|Sonic||15.0
|-
|Wario||15.0
|-
|Wii Fit Trainer||20.0
|}
|width="25%" style="vertical-align:top"|
{|class="wikitable"
!colspan="2"|Crazy
|-
!width="150px"|Character!!width="50px"|Odds
|-
|Cloud||100.0
|-
|Corrin||40.0
|-
|Dark Pit||30.0
|-
|Dr. Mario||50.0
|-
|Duck Hunt||50.0
|-
|Ivysaur||55.0
|-
|Lucina||75.0
|-
|Mega Man||35.0
|-
|Mr. Game & Watch||50.0
|-
|Pac-Man||30.0
|-
|Pichu||100.0
|-
|Pokémon Trainer<sup>3</sup>||100.0
|-
|R.O.B.||50.0
|-
|Roy||60.0
|-
|Ryu||75.0
|-
|Snake||100.0
|-
|Squirtle||55.0
|-
|Wolf||40.0
|-
|Young Link<sup>4</sup>||100.0
|}
|}

<sup>1</sup> The Link who has the classic "Link" moveset, whatever his design or name happen to be.<br/>
<sup>2</sup> Counts all Mii subtypes as one.<br/>
<sup>3</sup> The "stands in the background while his switchable Pokémon fight" Trainer. Which exact Pokémon he has fall under their own bets.<br/>
<sup>4</sup> "Sensibly-proportioned non-adult Link" as opposed to "cell-shaded big-head Link". Items used may also be a factor.

===Newcomers===
You may place bets of two types:
#"New character from X series". Odds are as given.
#"Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.
Odds are halved if a newcomer is a clone or semi-clone (must be explicitly stated, or trivially observable). Odds are quartered if a character is shown to be an alternate costume.

I may choose different odds for specific newcomers if you spell them out, at my discretion.

I left some veteran series off this list on purpose, because I think there are no further viable characters from them. Complain if you want. Perhaps I'm misinformed.

{|class="wikitable"
|-
|Mario series||1.2
|-
|Yoshi subseries||4.0
|-
|WarioWare subseries||7.0
|-
|Donkey Kong series||1.3
|-
|Zelda series||1.4
|-
|Metroid series||5.0
|-
|Kirby series||4.0
|-
|Star Fox series||2.0
|-
|Pokémon series||2.0
|-
|F-Zero series||25.0
|-
|EarthBound series||25.0
|-
|Fire Emblem series||3.0
|-
|Kid Icarus series||5.0
|-
|Pikmin series||20.0
|-
|Xenoblade series||15.0
|-
|Sonic series||20.0
|-
|Metal Gear series||100.0
|-
|Mega Man series||50.0
|-
|Bayonetta series||75.0
|-
|New series, first-party||1.5
|-
|New series, third-party (with existing major<sup>1</sup> representation)||2.5
|-
|New series, third-party (with existing minor<sup>1</sup> representation)||10.0
|-
|New series, third-party (other)||15.0
|}

<sup>1</sup> "Major" means the third party has contributed a playable character or stage in previous instalments. "Minor" means something less than that, such as an item, music, or trophy. Whether they are of the same series does not matter.

===Trailer details===
Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.
{|class="wikitable"
|-
|Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer"||1.2
|-
|Looks like some other game to start with||1.5
|-
|Opens with the title logo||2.5
|-
|First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu)||2.0
|-
|At least one Final Smash shown<sup>1</sup>||1.4
|-
|Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%<sup>2</sup>||1.5
|-
|Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%<sup>2</sup>||2.5
|-
|Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move||2.0
|-
|What looks to be an altered mechanic||2.0
|-
|What looks to be a new mechanic||2.0
|-
|Contains large explosion||1.5
|-
|Has false ending||4.0
|}

<sup>1</sup> Or at least most people agree it looks like one.<br/>
<sup>2</sup> As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.

===Other===
Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.
{|class="wikitable"
|-
|Spring Man as something other than a playable character||12.5
|}

==Entries==
You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything), as long as you don't flood the page with edits (it is a userpage after all). If you do change your bet too many times, I'll wait until after the reveal and change your bet to whatever version pays the least.

You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.
{|class="wikitable"
|-
!Bets!!User!!{{rollover|Max Potential|maximum possible payout|y}}!!{{rollover|Total Odds|odds of max payout (all odds multiplied)|y}}
|-
|
*25 on Captain Falcon
*25 on Luigi
*50 on Jigglypuff
|''[[User:Alex Parpotta|<span style="color: blue;">'''Alex Parpotta'''</span>]] the [[User talk:Alex Parpotta|<span style="color: red;">'''flying lobster!'''</span>]]'' 15:22, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
|1,600
|1,125.0
|-
|
*20 on Ganondorf
*10 on Mewtwo
*10 on Lucario
*5 on Spring Man from ARMS
|<span style="font-family:Algerian;font-size:10pt;background:#000;border:outset #083 2px;padding:1px 3px">'''[[User:Serpent King|<span style="color:#083">Serpent</span>]]&nbsp;[[File:SKSig.png|12px|link=]]&nbsp;[[User talk:Serpent King|<span style="color:#ed0">King</span>]]'''</span> 16:05, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
|865
|22,500.0
|-
|
*50 on Mario 
*25 on Link
*25 on Pikachu
|[[User:Iron Warrior|<span style="color: red;">'''Iron Reggie,'''</span>]] [[User talk:Iron Warrior|<span style="color: cyan;">'''Master of Memes'''</span>]] 16:11, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
|101
|1.03
|-
|
*50 on False Ending
*20 on Wario
*20 on New Series Third-Party (Rayman)
*10 on Sonic
||[[User:ToastUltimatum|<font color="darkorange">Toast</font>]] [[File:Wii U Logo Transparent.png|17px|link=Special:Contributions/ToastUltimatum]][[User talk:ToastUltimatum|<font color="seablue">'''ltimatum'''</font>]][[File:Transparent Swadloon.png|26px]] 17:09, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
|850
|9,000.0
|-
|
*10 on Bowser
*30 on Marth
*30 on Takamaru (new series first-party)
*30 on Steve? (Minecraft, new series third-party)
|[[User:Menshay|Menshay]] ([[User talk:Menshay|talk]]) 19:14, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
|1,120.1
|363.6
|-
|
*5 on each of the remaining Original 8 (Fox, Kirby, Pikachu, Yoshi)
*5 on Pit
*10 on Sonic
*15 on Rex from ''Xenoblade Chronicles 2''
*20 on Spring Man being deconfirmed
|[[User:Aidanzapunk|<span style="color: blue;">'''Aidan'''</span>]], [[User talk:Aidanzapunk|<span style="color: blue;">'''the Rurouni'''</span>]] 20:04, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
|650.65
|3,194.74
|-
|
* 25 on Jigglypuff
* 25 on Captain Falcon
* 25 on Ness
* 25 on Luigi
|[[User:infernape612|<span style="color:orange">infernape]][[User talk:infernape612|<span style="color:orange">612</span>]]</span> 12:07, 2 June 2018 (EDT)
|1,475
|22,500.0
|-
|
* 15 on Mario
* 10 on Pikachu
* 10 on Donkey Kong
* 20 on Mii Fighter
* 45 on Luigi
| [[User:Dragonfirebreath25|Dragonfirebreath25]] ([[User talk:Dragonfirebreath25|talk]]) 12:59, 2 June 2018 (EDT)
|840.35
|185.45
|-
|
* 3 each on the Original 8
* 9 each on Luigi, Ness, Captain Falcon, and Jigglypuff
* 20 on Meowth (Team Rocket) from Pokémon
* 20 on Waluigi from Super Mario or WarioWare
|anonymous
|616.21
|60,790.07
|}
	You aren't logged in. While it's not a requirement to create an account, doing so makes it a lot easier to keep track of your edits and a lot harder to confuse you with someone else. If you edit without being logged in, your IP address will be recorded in the page's edit history.
	Log in	Create account
@@ Line 317: / Line 317: @@
 *10 on Sonic
 ||[[User:ToastUltimatum|<font color="darkorange">Toast</font>]] [[File:Wii U Logo Transparent.png|17px|link=Special:Contributions/ToastUltimatum]][[User talk:ToastUltimatum|<font color="seablue">'''ltimatum'''</font>]][[File:Transparent Swadloon.png|26px]] 17:09, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
-|1050
+|850
-|18,000.0
+|9,000.0
 |-
 |
@@ Line 336: / Line 336: @@
 *20 on Spring Man being deconfirmed
 |[[User:Aidanzapunk|<span style="color: blue;">'''Aidan'''</span>]], [[User talk:Aidanzapunk|<span style="color: blue;">'''the Rurouni'''</span>]] 20:04, 17 March 2018 (EDT)
-|875.65
+|650.65
-|6,389.48
+|3,194.74
 |-
 |
@@ Line 362: / Line 362: @@
 * 9 each on Luigi, Ness, Captain Falcon, and Jigglypuff
 * 20 on Meowth (Team Rocket) from Pokémon
-* 20 on Waluigi from Super Mario
+* 20 on Waluigi from Super Mario or WarioWare
-| <small>—Preceding unsigned comment added by [[User:24.52.19.237|24.52.19.237]] ([[User talk:24.52.19.237|talk]] • [[Special:Contributions/24.52.19.237|contribs]]) 20:25, 2 June 2018 (EDT)</small>
+|anonymous
-|683.36
+|616.21
-|243,160.3
+|60,790.07
-|-
-|
-* 20 on Luigi
-* 15 on Sonic
-* 30 on Villager
-* 20 on Fox
-* 15 on Rex from ''Xenoblade Chronicles 2''
-| [[User:Awesomelink234|<span style="font-size:10pt;background:#00FF20;border:outset #083 2px;padding:1px 3px;color:#050DF7">Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan</span>]] [[User talk:Awesomelink234|Leave a message if needed]] 09:30, 4 June 2018 (EDT)
-|1,086
-|29,767.5
-|-
-|
-*50 for Pikachu
-*20 for Pit
-*15 for Dark Pit
-*10 for Yoshi
-*5 for Pichu
-|[[User:CaptainDabsalot]]
-[[User Talk: CaptainDabsalot]]
-|1,031.6
-|3,213.32
-|-
-|
-*20 on Fox
-*20 on Captain Falcon
-*20 on Olimar
-*20 on Little Mac
-*20 on Lark from Pilotwings 64
-|<span style="font-family:Mario Party 2/3 Textbox">[[User:RickTommy|<span style="color:red">Rick</span>]][[User talk:RickTommy|<span style="color:green">Tommy</span>]]</span> 22:30, 9 June 2018 (EDT)
-|541
-|1,134.0
-|-
-|
-*50 on Ridley
-*50 on Snake
-|<span style="font-family:AR JULIAN; font-size:12pt">[[User:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Chuck</span>]][[User talk:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Norris</span>]]</span>[[File:24.png|23px]]  16:48, 11 June 2018 (EDT)
-|5,500
-|1,000.0
-|-
-|}
-==Results==
-Veterans: Everyone (as the gimmick goes)
-Newcomers:
-{|class="wikitable"
-|-
-|Daisy (Mario series)||1.2
-|-
-|Ridley (Metroid series)||5.0
-|-
-|Inkling (new series first-party)||1.5
-|}
-{|class="wikitable"
-|-
-|Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer"||1.2
-|-
-|Opens with the title logo||2.5
-|-
-|At least one Final Smash shown<sup>1</sup>||1.4
-|-
-|Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%||1.5
-|-
-|Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move||2.0
-|-
-|What looks to be an altered mechanic||2.0
-|-
-|What looks to be a new mechanic||2.0
-|-
-|Has false ending||4.0
-|}
-{|class="wikitable"
-|-
-!colspan=2|Bets!!User!!Results!!Total
-|-
-|25||Captain Falcon||rowspan="3"|''[[User:Alex Parpotta|<span style="color: blue;">'''Alex Parpotta'''</span>]] the [[User talk:Alex Parpotta|<span style="color: red;">'''flying lobster!'''</span>]]''||{{y}}||rowspan="3"|1,600.0
-|-
-|25||Luigi||{{y}}
-|-
-|50||Jigglypuff||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||Ganondorf||rowspan="4"|<span style="font-family:Algerian;font-size:10pt;background:#000;border:outset #083 2px;padding:1px 3px">'''[[User:Serpent King|<span style="color:#083">Serpent</span>]]&nbsp;[[File:SKSig.png|12px|link=]]&nbsp;[[User talk:Serpent King|<span style="color:#ed0">King</span>]]'''</span>||{{y}}||rowspan="4"|850.0
-|-
-|10||Mewtwo||{{y}}
-|-
-|10||Lucario||{{y}}
-|-
-|5||New series, first-party (ARMS: Spring Man)||{{n}}
-|-
-|50||Mario||rowspan="3"|[[User:Iron Warrior|<span style="color: red;">'''Iron Reggie,'''</span>]] [[User talk:Iron Warrior|<span style="color: cyan;">'''Master of Memes'''</span>]]||{{y}}||rowspan="3"|101.0
-|-
-|25||Link||{{y}}
-|-
-|25||Pikachu||{{y}}
-|-
-|50||Has false ending||rowspan="4"|[[User:ToastUltimatum|<font color="darkorange">Toast</font>]] [[File:Wii U Logo Transparent.png|17px|link=Special:Contributions/ToastUltimatum]][[User talk:ToastUltimatum|<font color="seablue">'''ltimatum'''</font>]][[File:Transparent Swadloon.png|26px]]||{{y}}||rowspan="4"|650.0
-|-
-|20||Wario||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||New series, third-party (existing minor rep.) (Rayman: Rayman)||{{n}}
-|-
-|10||Sonic||{{y}}
-|-
-|10||Bowser||rowspan="4"|[[User:Menshay|Menshay]] ([[User talk:Menshay|talk]])||{{y}}||rowspan="4"|130.1
-|-
-|30||Marth||{{y}}
-|-
-|30||New series, first-party (The Mysterious Murasame Castle: Takamaru)||{{n}}
-|-
-|30||New series, third-party (other) (Minecraft: Steve)||{{n}}
-|-
-|5||Fox||rowspan="8"|[[User:Aidanzapunk|<span style="color: blue;">'''Aidan'''</span>]], [[User talk:Aidanzapunk|<span style="color: blue;">'''the Rurouni'''</span>]]||{{y}}||rowspan="8"|175.65
-|-
-|5||Kirby||{{y}}
-|-
-|5||Pikachu||{{y}}
-|-
-|5||Yoshi||{{y}}
-|-
-|5||Pit||{{y}}
-|-
-|10||Sonic||{{y}}
-|-
-|15||Xenoblade series (Rex)||{{n}}
-|-
-|20||Spring Man as something other than a playable character||{{n}}
-|-
-|25||Jigglypuff||rowspan="4"|[[User:infernape612|<span style="color:orange">infernape]][[User talk:infernape612|<span style="color:orange">612</span>]]</span>||{{y}}||rowspan="4"|1,475.0
-|-
-|25||Captain Falcon||{{y}}
-|-
-|25||Ness||{{y}}
-|-
-|25||Luigi||{{y}}
-|-
-|15||Mario||rowspan="5"|[[User:Dragonfirebreath25|Dragonfirebreath25]] ([[User talk:Dragonfirebreath25|talk]])||{{y}}||rowspan="5"|840.35
-|-
-|10||Pikachu||{{y}}
-|-
-|10||Donkey Kong||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||Mii Fighter||{{y}}
-|-
-|45||Luigi||{{y}}
-|-
-|3||Mario||rowspan="14"|[[User:24.52.19.237|24.52.19.237]] ([[User talk:24.52.19.237|talk]] • [[Special:Contributions/24.52.19.237|contribs]])||{{y}}||rowspan="14"|555.36
-|-
-|3||Yoshi||{{y}}
-|-
-|3||Donkey Kong||{{y}}
-|-
-|3||Link||{{y}}
-|-
-|3||Samus||{{y}}
-|-
-|3||Kirby||{{y}}
-|-
-|3||Fox||{{y}}
-|-
-|3||Pikachu||{{y}}
-|-
-|9||Luigi||{{y}}
-|-
-|9||Jigglypuff||{{y}}
-|-
-|9||Captain Falcon||{{y}}
-|-
-|9||Ness||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||Pokemon series (Meowth R)||{{n}}
-|-
-|20||Mario series (Waluigi)||{{n}}
-|-
-|20||Luigi||rowspan="5"|[[User:Awesomelink234|<span style="font-size:10pt;background:#00FF20;border:outset #083 2px;padding:1px 3px;color:#050DF7">Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan</span>]] [[User talk:Awesomelink234|Leave a message if needed]]||{{y}}||rowspan="5"|636.0
-|-
-|15||Sonic||{{y}}
-|-
-|30||Villager||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||Fox||{{y}}
-|-
-|15||Xenoblade series (Rex)||{{n}}
-|-
-|50||Pikachu||rowspan="5"|[[User:CaptainDabsalot]] [[User Talk: CaptainDabsalot]]||{{y}}||rowspan="5"|1031.6
-|-
-|20||Pit||{{y}}
-|-
-|15||Dark Pit||{{y}}
-|-
-|10||Yoshi||{{y}}
-|-
-|5||Pichu||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||Fox||rowspan="5"|<span style="font-family:Mario Party 2/3 Textbox">[[User:RickTommy|<span style="color:red">Rick</span>]][[User talk:RickTommy|<span style="color:green">Tommy</span>]]</span>||{{y}}||rowspan="5"|481.0
-|-
-|20||Captain Falcon||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||Olimar||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||Little Mac||{{y}}
-|-
-|20||New series, first-party (Pilotwings) (Lark)||{{n}}
-|-
-|50||Metroid series (Ridley)||rowspan="2"|<span style="font-family:AR JULIAN; font-size:12pt">[[User:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Chuck</span>]][[User talk:ChuckNorris24|<span style="color:brown">Norris</span>]]</span>[[File:24.png|23px]]||{{y}}||rowspan="2"|5,500.0
-|-
-|50||Snake||{{y}}
 |}
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