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Vergeben leaks: Difference between revisions
If anyone wants to start a Volume 2 section, Vergeben said he would look into the League of Legends rumors, though I highly doubt it's worth posting here.
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EndGenuity (talk | contribs) (If anyone wants to start a Volume 2 section, Vergeben said he would look into the League of Legends rumors, though I highly doubt it's worth posting here.) |
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[[File:Vergeben Snake Leak.jpeg|thumb|right|300px|Vergeben leaking Snake.]] | [[File:Vergeben Snake Leak.jpeg|thumb|right|300px|Vergeben leaking Snake.]] | ||
[[File:Vergeben Minecraft Rumour.jpeg|thumb|left|300px|Vergeben rumouring Minecraft representation.]] | [[File:Vergeben Minecraft Rumour.jpeg|thumb|left|300px|Vergeben rumouring Minecraft representation.]] | ||
On March 16, 2018, eight days after the reveal of the then-untitled ''Super Smash Bros. Ultimate'', Vergeben posted [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-for-nintendo-switch/76421310 a thread] on GameFAQs | On March 16, 2018, eight days after the reveal of the then-untitled ''Super Smash Bros. Ultimate'', Vergeben posted [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-for-nintendo-switch/76421310 a thread] on GameFAQs, claiming Ridley was a playable character and that the new ''Smash'' game would be an entirely new game but with reused assets. Exactly two months later, on May 16, Vergeben posted another thread on GameFAQs, claiming he had a reliable source with information on the character roster. Specifically, he said that [[Ridley]] and [[Simon Belmont]] would be newcomers and that the entire roster from ''[[Super Smash Bros. 4]]'' would return with no cuts, with the [[Ice Climbers]] and [[Snake]] also returning after being cut from ''SSB4''. Vergeben also claimed that the popular Microsoft-owned indie game ''Minecraft'' would be represented in some form. | ||
The lack of cuts from ''SSB4'''s roster, the return of Snake and the Ice Climbers, and the addition of Ridley were all confirmed during Nintendo’s E3 2018 Direct. This left Simon Belmont and ''Minecraft'' representation Vergeben's only unconfirmed claims. In response to a GameFAQs post asking about Simon, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76694154/903083982 replied] “Just be patient. There are still things to be revealed before release”, suggesting that Simon would be revealed at a later date. | The lack of cuts from ''SSB4'''s roster, the return of Snake and the Ice Climbers, and the addition of Ridley were all confirmed during Nintendo’s E3 2018 Direct. This left Simon Belmont and ''Minecraft'' representation Vergeben's only unconfirmed claims. In response to a GameFAQs post asking about Simon, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76694154/903083982 replied] “Just be patient. There are still things to be revealed before release”, suggesting that Simon would be revealed at a later date. | ||
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On August 18, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76915219?page=1#13 posted on a thread] stating that [[Ken]] from Street Fighter would appear in the game<ref>https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76928990?page=32#325</ref> as an Echo Fighter of {{SSBU|Ryu}}<ref>https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76958482?page=1#15</ref>. Four days later, Vergeben made another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76928398?page=9#100 post] on a thread, this time stating that a new third-party fighter owned by Square Enix would appear in the game. This led some to believe that Vergeben was simply taking info from the NeoGAF leak, but the next day he [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76929458#4 claimed] in a thread that he did not know anything about the NeoGAF leak, which also contradicted his own information since it claimed there would be no new ''Pokémon'' rep. He later said that he had heard seven different names for the newcomer and that Square Enix was intentionally sending out multiple names to prevent it from leaking. | On August 18, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76915219?page=1#13 posted on a thread] stating that [[Ken]] from Street Fighter would appear in the game<ref>https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76928990?page=32#325</ref> as an Echo Fighter of {{SSBU|Ryu}}<ref>https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76958482?page=1#15</ref>. Four days later, Vergeben made another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76928398?page=9#100 post] on a thread, this time stating that a new third-party fighter owned by Square Enix would appear in the game. This led some to believe that Vergeben was simply taking info from the NeoGAF leak, but the next day he [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/76929458#4 claimed] in a thread that he did not know anything about the NeoGAF leak, which also contradicted his own information since it claimed there would be no new ''Pokémon'' rep. He later said that he had heard seven different names for the newcomer and that Square Enix was intentionally sending out multiple names to prevent it from leaking. | ||
Another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77008096 thread by Vergeben] had him assert that Incineroar was the Generation VII Pokémon that would appear as a newcomer. He also addressed the popular "Box Theory", which stated that there would only be two more fighters in the base game as the box art for the Special Edition of the game had room for only two more fighters. Though assured that Incineroar and Ken were in the game, he noted that the source for the Square Enix newcomer had never been wrong in the past. In the debate surrounding the [[List of rumors# | Another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77008096 thread by Vergeben] had him assert that Incineroar was the Generation VII Pokémon that would appear as a newcomer. He also addressed the popular "Box Theory", which stated that there would only be two more fighters in the base game as the box art for the Special Edition of the game had room for only two more fighters. Though assured that Incineroar and Ken were in the game, he noted that the source for the Square Enix newcomer had never been wrong in the past. In the debate surrounding the [[List of rumors#"The Grinch leak"|Grinch leak]], Vergeben made a [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77149243?jumpto=224#224 post] on October 31, suggesting that Isaac, in contrast to what the rumor was suggesting, was an Assist Trophy instead of being playable. | ||
On November 1, 2018, the final Nintendo Direct for the game revealed {{SSBU|Ken}} and {{SSBU|Incineroar}} as the last fighters for the base game, as well as revealing Isaac to be an Assist Trophy, confirming Vergeben's earlier claims about them. It was also announced in this Direct that there would be additional fighters as paid DLC, which had the potential to include the Square Enix newcomer and the ''Minecraft'' content. | On November 1, 2018, the final Nintendo Direct for the game revealed {{SSBU|Ken}} and {{SSBU|Incineroar}} as the last fighters for the base game, as well as revealing Isaac to be an Assist Trophy, confirming Vergeben's earlier claims about them. It was also announced in this Direct that there would be additional fighters as paid DLC, which had the potential to include the Square Enix newcomer and the ''Minecraft'' content. | ||
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**from either [[Ubisoft]] or {{s|wikipedia|Nihon Falcom}} on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78203375?jumpto=27 November 27]; | **from either [[Ubisoft]] or {{s|wikipedia|Nihon Falcom}} on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78203375?jumpto=27 November 27]; | ||
**or from either [[Bandai Namco]] or {{iw|wikipedia|Level-5|company}} on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78213641?jumpto=84#84 November 30]. | **or from either [[Bandai Namco]] or {{iw|wikipedia|Level-5|company}} on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78213641?jumpto=84#84 November 30]. | ||
*He would post on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78218788?jumpto=51#51 December 6] that it was not from [[Capcom]], [[Sega]], [[Konami]], {{s|wikipedia|Arc System Works}}, {{s|wikipedia|Spike Chunsoft}}, {{s|wikipedia|Marvelous Inc.}}, {{s|wikipedia|Epic Games}}, {{s|wikipedia|Touhou Project}}, {{s|wikipedia|Bethesda}}, {{s|wikipedia|Koei Tecmo}}, {{s|wikipedia|Activision}}, {{s|wikipedia|Blizzard Entertainment}}, or [[Nintendo]], potentially not from [[Microsoft]] or [[Square Enix]], and not a character already in the game as an Assist Trophy or Spirit. | |||
On December 7th, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78233689?jumpto=52#52 stated] that he would try to check if the final Fighters Pass Vol. 1 character was owned by HAL Laboratory, Game Freak, Intelligent Systems, SNK, or Atlus. [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78235954 A different post] he made later on the same day clarified that the list of companies he had listed the day before was incorrect, and it was only characters he had listed beside the companies' names that were disconfirmed. Characters removed from the running were Arle Nadja from ''Puyo Puyo'', Sakura from ''Sakura Wars'', Crash Bandicoot from his self-titled series, Tracer from ''Overwatch'', and Reimu Hakurei from ''Touhou''. Kat from ''Gravity Rush'' was also disconfirmed as an aside, leaving the possibility for the remaining companies open. The second list of the post did not mention the disconfirmation of an Assist Trophy or Spirit being promoted like the first list did, though it is unknown if this was significant or an error. On December 8th, he made another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78235954/931304870 post] saying that the character was not Sora, Sol Badguy, Ragna, Billy and Jimmy Lee from Double Dragon, Dante, Phoenix Wright, Sir Arthur, Amaterasu, Monster Hunter, Sam Porter Bridges, Geralt of Rivia, Monokuma, Kratos or Master Chief. In the same post, Vergeben noted the confusion over the informant's uncertainty about it being {{s|wikipedia|KOS-MOS}} from ''{{s|wikipedia|Xenosaga}}'' despite them denying that the character was owned by Bandai Namco: this was likely a result of mistaking KOS-MOS for a Monolith Soft character. However, the 4chan post that suggested KOS-MOS, claiming it would be announced during {{S|wikipedia|The Game Awards 2019}}, was later debunked as The Game Awards aired with no new announcements regarding ''Smash''. Vergeben stated on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78258412?jumpto=13#13 December 16] that the 5th Fighter Pass character was not Reiji Arisu and Xiaomu from ''Namco x Capcom'' and the ''Project x Zone'' series or Morrigan from ''{{s|wikipedia|Darkstalkers}}''. | On December 7th, Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78233689?jumpto=52#52 stated] that he would try to check if the final Fighters Pass Vol. 1 character was owned by HAL Laboratory, Game Freak, Intelligent Systems, SNK, or Atlus. [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78235954 A different post] he made later on the same day clarified that the list of companies he had listed the day before was incorrect, and it was only characters he had listed beside the companies' names that were disconfirmed. Characters removed from the running were Arle Nadja from ''Puyo Puyo'', Sakura from ''Sakura Wars'', Crash Bandicoot from his self-titled series, Tracer from ''Overwatch'', and Reimu Hakurei from ''Touhou''. Kat from ''Gravity Rush'' was also disconfirmed as an aside, leaving the possibility for the remaining companies open. The second list of the post did not mention the disconfirmation of an Assist Trophy or Spirit being promoted like the first list did, though it is unknown if this was significant or an error. On December 8th, he made another [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78235954/931304870 post] saying that the character was not Sora, Sol Badguy, Ragna, Billy and Jimmy Lee from Double Dragon, Dante, Phoenix Wright, Sir Arthur, Amaterasu, Monster Hunter, Sam Porter Bridges, Geralt of Rivia, Monokuma, Kratos or Master Chief. In the same post, Vergeben noted the confusion over the informant's uncertainty about it being {{s|wikipedia|KOS-MOS}} from ''{{s|wikipedia|Xenosaga}}'' despite them denying that the character was owned by Bandai Namco: this was likely a result of mistaking KOS-MOS for a Monolith Soft character. However, the 4chan post that suggested KOS-MOS, claiming it would be announced during {{S|wikipedia|The Game Awards 2019}}, was later debunked as The Game Awards aired with no new announcements regarding ''Smash''. Vergeben stated on [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/78258412?jumpto=13#13 December 16] that the 5th Fighter Pass character was not Reiji Arisu and Xiaomu from ''Namco x Capcom'' and the ''Project x Zone'' series or Morrigan from ''{{s|wikipedia|Darkstalkers}}''. | ||
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Similar to the [[Gematsu leaks]], the confirmation during E3 2018 of several of Vergeben's claims brought a large amount of discussion surrounding them and their authenticity. Believers of the leak cited Vergeben's history of accurate insider info, while ascribing any potential and future falsehoods to the aforementioned lack of insider trading. Detractors were wary of Vergeben being a repeat of Gematsu, with accurate information at the start but less notable or outright wrong information towards the end. Another camp accused him of stealing information from other leaks, though many of the purported examples were, in fact, copycats of Vergeben. | Similar to the [[Gematsu leaks]], the confirmation during E3 2018 of several of Vergeben's claims brought a large amount of discussion surrounding them and their authenticity. Believers of the leak cited Vergeben's history of accurate insider info, while ascribing any potential and future falsehoods to the aforementioned lack of insider trading. Detractors were wary of Vergeben being a repeat of Gematsu, with accurate information at the start but less notable or outright wrong information towards the end. Another camp accused him of stealing information from other leaks, though many of the purported examples were, in fact, copycats of Vergeben. | ||
The two predictions that gave Vergeben most of his credibility were {{SSBU|Isabelle}} and {{SSBU|Incineroar}}, for very few rumors had suggested their inclusions. Incineroar, in particular, was largely exclusive to Vergeben: many credited him with popularizing its inclusion, with most other leakers suggesting Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, [[Tapu Koko]], or {{s|bulbapedia|Zeraora}} as the new Pokémon representative. Furthermore, a large portion of the community subscribed to the | The two predictions that gave Vergeben most of his credibility were {{SSBU|Isabelle}} and {{SSBU|Incineroar}}, for very few rumors had suggested their inclusions. Incineroar, in particular, was largely exclusive to Vergeben: many credited him with popularizing its inclusion, with most other leakers suggesting Decidueye, Mimikyu, Lycanroc, [[Tapu Koko]], or {{s|bulbapedia|Zeraora}} as the new Pokémon representative. Furthermore, a large portion of the community subscribed to the Grinch leak despite Vergeben adamantly denying it, and thus he was vindicated when the Grinch leak was debunked by Incineroar's reveal. | ||
His claim that the first Challenger Pack would include a Square Enix fighter, the first | His claim that the first Challenger Pack would include a Square Enix fighter, the first claim of his to have been proven incorrect, drew in a fair bit of skepticism about the leak. Vergeben's explanation that Joker had been moved up last minute was largely accepted, in particular due to confirmation that [[Masahiro Sakurai]] had been requested by Nintendo last minute to prepare a trailer for Joker's reveal, leaving him unable to demonstrate any gameplay. Doubters pointed out that the leak by definition was not infallible due to making a completely wrong assumption, though this argument was dismissed as a {{S|wikipedia|fallacy of composition}} that did not degrade any of Vergeben's other claims. | ||
Though his claims for Hero and Terry came to be true, doubt was cast upon them due to several other rumors making similar claims. For Hero, multiple posts including the aforementioned 5channel leak suggested that ''Dragon Quest'' representation would come in some form, well before Vergeben starting making those claims for himself. He had also used the name "Erdrick" instead of "Luminary" like these rumors, despite the Luminary being the default costume and Vergeben being explicitly aware that the name kept cropping up. For Terry, the [[Leak#Nintendo_of_Europe_site_SNK_fighter_leak|webpage that first triggered speculation about an SNK fighter]] came before Vergeben had said anything on the matter (and in fact Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77980705?jumpto=26#26 had to explain] that he never commented on the SNK leak at all as an article written by The Verge claimed he did). | Though his claims for Hero and Terry came to be true, doubt was cast upon them due to several other rumors making similar claims. For Hero, multiple posts including the aforementioned 5channel leak suggested that ''Dragon Quest'' representation would come in some form, well before Vergeben starting making those claims for himself. He had also used the name "Erdrick" instead of "Luminary" like these rumors, despite the Luminary being the default costume and Vergeben being explicitly aware that the name kept cropping up. For Terry, the [[Leak#Nintendo_of_Europe_site_SNK_fighter_leak|webpage that first triggered speculation about an SNK fighter]] came before Vergeben had said anything on the matter (and in fact Vergeben [https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77980705?jumpto=26#26 had to explain] that he never commented on the SNK leak at all as an article written by The Verge claimed he did). | ||
Vergeben's information leading up to the reveal of the fifth Fighters' Pass character drew large amounts of skepticism and criticism, as he shot down a vast majority of popular options without outright stating who the fighter was. In addition to this, the fact that the source was uncertain about KOS-MOS, a Bandai Namco character, despite the source apparently debunking a Bandai Namco rep beforehand, drew more skepticism. Criticism increased after Vergeben backtracked on a number of his disconfirmations; Vergeben justified this by stating that he had misunderstood his source, but many refused to accept the explanation. After The Game Awards passed without an announcement, many claimed that this proved Vergeben was wrong, despite the original claim for a TGA announcement not coming from him. He also garnered much criticism when he claimed to have been told the character was {{SSBU|Byleth}} fifteen minutes before the presentation but did not reveal this until after the presentation began; however, his accuracy in predicting the Mii Fighter costumes that had not yet been revealed in the presentation seem to suggest that he may have had inside information after all. | Vergeben's information leading up to the reveal of the fifth Fighters' Pass character drew large amounts of skepticism and criticism, as he shot down a vast majority of popular options without outright stating who the fighter was. In addition to this, the fact that the source was uncertain about KOS-MOS, a Bandai Namco character, despite the source apparently debunking a Bandai Namco rep beforehand, drew more skepticism. Criticism increased after Vergeben backtracked on a number of his disconfirmations; Vergeben justified this by stating that he had misunderstood his source, but many refused to accept the explanation. After The Game Awards passed without an announcement, many claimed that this proved Vergeben was wrong, despite the original claim for a TGA announcement not coming from him. He also garnered much criticism when he claimed to have been told the character was {{SSBU|Byleth}} fifteen minutes before the presentation but did not reveal this until after the presentation began; however, his accuracy in predicting the Mii Fighter costumes that had not yet been revealed in the presentation seem to suggest that he may have had inside information after all. In spite of this, the fact that no ''Minecraft'' content of any kind came with any of the Fighters Pass characters or their accompanying waves of Mii outfits led to the general consensus that Vergeben was wrong about it, as even if ''Minecraft'' content were to come in the future, Vergeben had made the claim so long ago that it would not be at all relevant to DLC after the first Fighters Pass. | ||
Although most agree that Vergeben had to have had at least some legitimate insider information, some deniers continue to insist that Vergeben stole all of his information from other leaks or point to Vergeben's only two falsehoods as supposed evidence for his claims being fake or even lucky guesses. In the end, Vergeben serves as a generally reliable source of information, but is still prone to mistakes if he believes an unreliable source, he misunderstands a report, or his sources fall for false information. | Although most agree that Vergeben had to have had at least some legitimate insider information, some deniers continue to insist that Vergeben stole all of his information from other leaks or point to Vergeben's only two falsehoods as supposed evidence for his claims being fake or even lucky guesses. In the end, Vergeben serves as a generally reliable source of information, but is still prone to mistakes if he believes an unreliable source, he misunderstands a report, or his sources fall for false information. | ||