User:Toomai/The SSB5 Reveal Prediction Game

Last time, only one user made money (and one broke even) on the SSB4 trailer. Time for round two. *ding ding*

Rules

• Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
• Players get 100 Smash Coins.
• Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed during the first Smash Bros. trailer during E3 2018. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
• If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
• There is no prize for winning; just the satisfaction of outguessing everyone else.
• Second disclaimer: If a character-specific reveal comes first within a few days, I may choose to merge its results with the general trailer that comes later. If it comes too long before the E3 window, it won't count, and I will update these odds appropriately.

Odds

If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.

Reminder: this is solely based on the initial reveal, and has nothing to do with what will eventually appear in the final game.

Veterans

You may place bets based on which veteran characters will appear.

Safe Character Odds Bowser 1.01 Donkey Kong 1.01 Fox 1.05 Inkling 1.01 Kirby 1.01 Link1 1.01 Mario 1.01 Peach 1.1 Pikachu 1.01 Pit 1.05 Samus 1.01 Yoshi 1.01

Inside Character Odds Captain Falcon 5.0 Charizard 8.0 Diddy Kong 4.0 Falco 8.0 Ike 7.0 King Dedede 5.0 Luigi 9.0 Marth 4.0 Meta Knight 5.0 Olimar 6.0 Palutena 5.0 Rosalina 7.0 Sheik 3.0 Toon Link 8.0 Villager 7.0 Zelda 3.0 Zero Suit Samus 5.0

Outside Character Odds Bayonetta 15.0 Bowser Jr. 20.0 Ganondorf 25.0 Greninja 12.0 Ice Climbers 25.0 Jigglypuff 25.0 Little Mac 12.0 Lucario 15.0 Lucas 25.0 Mewtwo 20.0 Mii Fighter2 20.0 Ness 20.0 Robin 15.0 Shulk 12.0 Sonic 15.0 Wario 15.0 Wii Fit Trainer 20.0

Crazy Character Odds Cloud 100.0 Corrin 40.0 Dark Pit 30.0 Dr. Mario 50.0 Duck Hunt 50.0 Ivysaur 55.0 Lucina 75.0 Mega Man 35.0 Mr. Game & Watch 50.0 Pac-Man 30.0 Pichu 100.0 Pokémon Trainer3 100.0 R.O.B. 50.0 Roy 60.0 Ryu 75.0 Snake 100.0 Squirtle 55.0 Wolf 40.0 Young Link4 100.0

¹ The Link who has the classic "Link" moveset, whatever his design or name happen to be.
² Counts all Mii subtypes as one.
³ The "stands in the background while his switchable Pokémon fight" Trainer. Which exact Pokémon he has fall under their own bets.
⁴ "Sensibly-proportioned non-adult Link" as opposed to "cell-shaded big-head Link". Items used may also be a factor.

Newcomers

You may place bets of two types:

1. "New character from X series". Odds are as given.
2. "Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.

Odds are halved if a newcomer is a clone or semi-clone (must be explicitly stated, or trivially observable). Odds are quartered if a character is shown to be an alternate costume.

I may choose different odds for specific newcomers if you spell them out, at my discretion.

I left some veteran series off this list on purpose, because I think there are no further viable characters from them. Complain if you want. Perhaps I'm misinformed.

Mario series	1.2
Yoshi subseries	4.0
WarioWare subseries	7.0
Donkey Kong series	1.3
Zelda series	1.4
Metroid series	5.0
Kirby series	4.0
Star Fox series	2.0
Pokémon series	2.0
F-Zero series	25.0
EarthBound series	25.0
Fire Emblem series	3.0
Kid Icarus series	5.0
Pikmin series	20.0
Xenoblade series	15.0
Sonic series	20.0
Metal Gear series	100.0
Mega Man series	50.0
Bayonetta series	75.0
New series, first-party	1.5
New series, third-party (with existing major1 representation)	2.5
New series, third-party (with existing minor1 representation)	10.0
New series, third-party (other)	15.0

¹ "Major" means the third party has contributed a playable character or stage in previous instalments. "Minor" means something less than that, such as an item, music, or trophy. Whether they are of the same series does not matter.

Trailer details

Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.

Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer"	1.2
Looks like some other game to start with	1.5
Opens with the title logo	2.5
First characters shown are Flagship Four (Mario, Link, Kirby, Pikachu)	2.0
At least one Final Smash shown1	1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%2	1.5
Gameplay/video ratio <= 33%2	2.5
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move	2.0
What looks to be an altered mechanic	2.0
What looks to be a new mechanic	2.0
Contains large explosion	1.5
Has false ending	4.0

¹ Or at least most people agree it looks like one.
² As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.

Other

Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.

Spring Man as something other than a playable character

12.5

Entries

You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything), as long as you don't flood the page with edits (it is a userpage after all). If you do change your bet too many times, I'll wait until after the reveal and change your bet to whatever version pays the least.

You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.

Bets	User	Max Potential	Total Odds
25 on Captain Falcon 25 on Luigi 50 on Jigglypuff	Alex Parpotta the flying lobster! 15:22, 17 March 2018 (EDT)	1,600	1,125.0
20 on Ganondorf 10 on Mewtwo 10 on Lucario 5 on Spring Man from ARMS	Serpent  King 16:05, 17 March 2018 (EDT)	865	22,500.0
50 on Mario 25 on Link 25 on Pikachu	Iron Reggie, Master of Memes 16:11, 17 March 2018 (EDT)	101	1.03
50 on False Ending 20 on Wario 20 on New Series Third-Party (Rayman) 10 on Sonic	Toast ltimatum 17:09, 17 March 2018 (EDT)	1050	18,000.0
10 on Bowser 30 on Marth 30 on Takamaru (new series first-party) 30 on Steve? (Minecraft, new series third-party)	Menshay (talk) 19:14, 17 March 2018 (EDT)	1,120.1	363.6
5 on each of the remaining Original 8 (Fox, Kirby, Pikachu, Yoshi) 5 on Pit 10 on Sonic 15 on Rex from Xenoblade Chronicles 2 20 on Spring Man being deconfirmed	Aidan, the Rurouni 20:04, 17 March 2018 (EDT)	875.65	6,389.48
25 on Jigglypuff 25 on Captain Falcon 25 on Ness 25 on Luigi	infernape612 12:07, 2 June 2018 (EDT)	1,475	22,500.0
15 on Mario 10 on Pikachu 10 on Donkey Kong 20 on Mii Fighter 45 on Luigi	Dragonfirebreath25 (talk) 12:59, 2 June 2018 (EDT)	840.35	185.45
3 each on the Original 8 9 each on Luigi, Ness, Captain Falcon, and Jigglypuff 20 on Meowth (Team Rocket) from Pokémon 20 on Waluigi from Super Mario	—Preceding unsigned comment added by 24.52.19.237 (talk • contribs) 20:25, 2 June 2018 (EDT)	683.36	243,160.3
20 on Luigi 15 on Sonic 30 on Villager 20 on Fox 15 on Rex from Xenoblade Chronicles 2	Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan Leave a message if needed 09:30, 4 June 2018 (EDT)	1,086	29,767.5
50 for Pikachu 20 for Pit 15 for Dark Pit 10 for Yoshi 5 for Pichu	User:CaptainDabsalot User Talk: CaptainDabsalot	1,031.6	3,213.32
20 on Fox 20 on Captain Falcon 20 on Olimar 20 on Little Mac 20 on Lark from Pilotwings 64	RickTommy 22:30, 9 June 2018 (EDT)	541	1,134.0
50 on Ridley 50 on Snake	ChuckNorris  16:48, 11 June 2018 (EDT)	5,500	1,000.0

Results

Veterans: Everyone (as the gimmick goes) Newcomers:

Daisy (Mario series)	1.2
Ridley (Metroid series)	5.0
Inkling (new series first-party)	1.5

Preceded with "here's the SSB trailer"	1.2
Opens with the title logo	2.5
At least one Final Smash shown1	1.4
Gameplay/video ratio >= 67%	1.5
Looks like a veteran has a new/altered move	2.0
What looks to be an altered mechanic	2.0
What looks to be a new mechanic	2.0
Has false ending	4.0

Bets		User	Results	Total
25	Captain Falcon	Alex Parpotta the flying lobster!		1,600.0
25	Luigi
50	Jigglypuff
20	Ganondorf	Serpent  King		850.0
10	Mewtwo
10	Lucario
5	New series, first-party (ARMS: Spring Man)
50	Mario	Iron Reggie, Master of Memes		101.0
25	Link
25	Pikachu
50	Has false ending	Toast ltimatum		650.0
20	Wario
20	New series, third-party (existing minor rep.) (Rayman: Rayman)
10	Sonic
10	Bowser	Menshay (talk)		130.1
30	Marth
30	New series, first-party (The Mysterious Murasame Castle: Takamaru)
30	New series, third-party (other) (Minecraft: Steve)
5	Fox	Aidan, the Rurouni		175.65
5	Kirby
5	Pikachu
5	Yoshi
5	Pit
10	Sonic
15	Xenoblade series (Rex)
20	Spring Man as something other than a playable character
25	Jigglypuff	infernape612		1,475.0
25	Captain Falcon
25	Ness
25	Luigi
15	Mario	Dragonfirebreath25 (talk)		840.35
10	Pikachu
10	Donkey Kong
20	Mii Fighter
45	Luigi
3	Mario	24.52.19.237 (talk • contribs)		555.36
3	Yoshi
3	Donkey Kong
3	Link
3	Samus
3	Kirby
3	Fox
3	Pikachu
9	Luigi
9	Jigglypuff
9	Captain Falcon
9	Ness
20	Pokemon series (Meowth R)
20	Mario series (Waluigi)
20	Luigi	Awesomelink234, the Super Cool Sonic Fan Leave a message if needed		636.0
15	Sonic
30	Villager
20	Fox
15	Xenoblade series (Rex)
50	Pikachu	User:CaptainDabsalot User Talk: CaptainDabsalot		1031.6
20	Pit
15	Dark Pit
10	Yoshi
5	Pichu
20	Fox	RickTommy		481.0
20	Captain Falcon
20	Olimar
20	Little Mac
20	New series, first-party (Pilotwings) (Lark)
50	Metroid series (Ridley)	ChuckNorris		5,500.0
50	Snake