User:Toomai/The SSB4 Reveal Prediction Game

Everyone knows a SSB4 trailer is coming at E3 2013. So let's put some bets on who you think will show up. Note that this is solely based on the initial reveal and has nothing to do with who will eventually appear in the final game.

Rules

 * Disclaimer: This may or may not be a fair game, I cannot know. It's purely for fun. Try not to go all super-math minmax serious.
 * Players get 100 Smash Coins.
 * Put as much money as you want on characters and some other things being confirmed. You don't have to use all your money or use whole numbers.
 * If something you put money on appears in the trailer, you get your money back times the odds multiplier. Otherwise you lose your cash.
 * Whoever wins the most may or may not get some sort of prize. A custom Smash Bros.-related desktop or something seems reasonable, maybe I'll figure something out. Don't expect much, this is just for fun.

Odds
If you disagree with some odds, complain on the talk page, preferably before you throw in your money and definitely before E3 kicks off.

Veterans
You may place bets based on which characters will appear.

1 Sensibly-proportioned, non-adult Link. 2 Cell-shaded, big-head Link. 3 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 10.0 odds for predicting otherwise. 4 2.0 odds for predicting "still linked characters", 7.0 odds for predicting otherwise. 5 5.0 odds for predicting "new forme appearance". 6 Given odds assume no change. 11.0 odds for predicting the Trainer with at least 1 different Pokémon. 20.0 odds for predicting a Pokémon without the Trainer. 17.0 odds for a different Trainer with the same Pokémon.

Newcomers
You may place bets of two types:
 * 1) "New character from X series". Odds are as given.
 * 2) "Character Q (from X series)". Odds will be doubled.

1 5.0 odds if new character looks to be an Olimar clone/replacement from Pikmin 3.

Trailer details
Like newcomers, being specific in something will double your payout, or possibly even more depending on how specific it is.

1 Or at least most people agree it looks like one (see Wario Waft). 2 As in, amount of obvious gameplay shown versus obvious non-gameplay.

Other
Give me a bet that isn't listed above (and doesn't easily fit above) and I'll create some odds for it. Then you'll argue it until the Nintendo Direct starts and lose your money since it didn't happen anyway. But hey, your perogative.

1 If it's only described outside the trailer (such as Reggie/Iwata saying "will do such and such" afterwards), it doesn't count. 2 Or at least most people agree it looks like one.

Entries
You may bet on as many things as you want. You may change your bets at any time until the ND starts (or we get a huge leak that ruins everything).

You only have to fill in the bet and signature cells. I will take care of the math cells.

Comments
Quick question Toomai: If a Young Link returns with a Final Smash different from Toon Link's Triforce Slash, how much do I get? Mr.  Anon  talk  12:01, 8 June 2013 (EDT)
 * That's a difficult question, since in a sense it depends on whether the final game has one or both secondary Links. If we see both secondary Links in the trailer then I'll count it as a new Final Smash, not a changed one; if only one appears I'll count it as changed as we'll have no other information to go on. Toomai Glittershine Toomai.png The Quiet 13:41, 8 June 2013 (EDT)

Results
Well looks like pretty much none of us guessed right.