User:Smiddle/
From now, this is where I keep and test stuff.
Pokémon probabilities in Brawl[edit]
From Poké Ball#Pokémon in Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I'm translating these relative frequencies into actual probabilities. I'm currently mathing.
| Pokémon | Relative frequency | Effective probability |
|---|---|---|
| Bellossom | 30 | |
| Bonsly | 30 | |
| Celebi | 0 | 586/288 898 = 1/493 |
| Chikorita | 30 | |
| Deoxys | 3 | |
| Electrode | 40 | |
| Entei | 5 | |
| Gardevoir | 30 | |
| Goldeen | 40 | |
| Groudon | 5 | |
| Gulpin | 30 | |
| Ho-oh | 3 | |
| Jirachi | 0 | 586/288 898 = 1/493 |
| Kyogre | 5 | |
| Latias and Latios | 30 | |
| Lugia | 3 | |
| Manaphy | 4 | |
| Meowth | 30 | |
| Metagross | 30 | |
| Mew | 0 | 586/288 898 = 1/493 |
| Moltres | 4 | |
| Munchlax | 30 | |
| Piplup | 30 | |
| Snorlax | 30 | |
| Staryu | 30 | |
| Suicune | 4 | |
| Togepi | 20 | |
| Torchic | 30 | |
| Weavile | 30 | |
| Wobbuffet | 30 |
Method[edit]
Three of the Pokémon (let's call these the "rare") have a relative frequency of 0, which is actually a probability of 1/493. Together their probability is 3/493; all the other Pokémon thus have a combined probability of 1 - 3/493 = 490/493.
The combined relative frequency of the non-rare is 586, so the combined probability can be expressed as (490*586)/(493*586), somewhat trivial but it will be useful later on. 493 and 586 are relatively prime, so the lowest common denominator is 493*586 = 288 898.
A non-rare has a proability of (Relative frequency)*490/288 898, or equally (Relative frequency)*245/144 449. As an example, a relative frequency of 1 gives a probability of 245/144 449, or ~0.17%.
